The EU will spend billions more on defence. It’s a powerful statement – but won’t do much for Ukraine
Jessica Genauer, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Flinders University. On March 3, US President Donald Trump paused all US military aid to Ukraine. This move was apparently triggered by a heated exchange a few days earlier between Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. In response, European Union leaders have now committed to rearm Europe by mobilising €800 billion (about A$1.4 trillion) in defence spending. 26 of the EU leaders (excluding Hungary) signed an agreement that peace for Ukraine must be accompanied by “robust and credible” security guarantees. They agreed there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine’s participation. It was also agreed the EU will continue to provide regular military and non-military support to Ukraine. This jump in defence spending is unprecedented for the EU, with 2024 spending hitting a previous record high of €326 billion (A$558 billion). At the same time, the United Kingdom has committed to the biggest increase in defence spending since the Cold War. The EU’s united front will create strong defences and deter a direct attack on EU nations. However, for Ukraine, it will not lead to a military victory in its war with Russia. While Europe has stepped up funding, this is not sufficient for Ukraine to defeat Russian forces currently occupying about 20% of the country. For Ukraine, the withdrawal of US support will severely strain their ability to keep fighting. Ukraine will likely need to find a way to freeze the conflict this year. This may mean a temporary truce that does not formally cede Ukrainian territory to Russia. A Trumpian worldview The vastly different approaches of the US under Trump and the EU point to a deeper ideological divide. While the Trump administration has acted more quickly and assertively in foreign affairs than many expected, its approach is not […]